Tomorrow night’s Strikeforce show features four bouts of ranking interest, all on the main card. Here’s what they are:
Light-heavyweight: #15 Gegard Mousasi vs. Keith Jardine. Jardine is a late replacement for Mike Kyle, and comes in riding a two-fight win streak on the independent circuit against relatively low-level, inexperienced competition. Jardine was once ranked in the top 15 around these parts, thanks mainly to his signature win over Chuck Liddell in May of 2008, but he’s since gone 3-6, with performances that prompted major concern over his defensive liabilities and susceptibility to punches. Which is all to say that Mousasi needs to take this if he wants to retain any of the hype that left him when he lost his Strikeforce light-heavyweight title to Muhammad “King Mo” Lawal a year ago, and that Jardine should probably retire even if he wins.
Welterweight: #14 Paul Daley vs. Nick Diaz. Diaz is already on a lot of top-10 lists–Sherdog has him at #8, MMA Weekly at #6, and he’s #7 on the Bloody Elbow consensus rankings–but in my view, he doesn’t belong there. He hasn’t fought a welterweight who belonged in the top 10 since maybe Sean Sherk in 2006. Hell, you might have to reach back to Karo Parisyan in 2004. He’s looked good in recent years beating up over-matched competition, some solid but unranked opponents, and the odd aging legend–and he is, without a doubt, an extremely talented and entertaining competitor–but he’s gone without a genuine high-ranking victory for a long time. And now, finally, he’s got another shot at one, in the form of Paul Daley, an excellent striker with a deficient ground game. Diaz has had great success with his unconventional boxing game in recent years, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he relies on it here. But the surest path to victory is on the ground. The question, as always, is whether Diaz can get him there. There’s also the significant matter of whether or not he’ll try.
Lightweight
- #2 Gilbert Melendez vs. #8 Tatsuya Kawajiri. Melendez, the Strikeforce lightweight champion, returns to action after just under a year. His last fight was a five-round drubbing of top Japanese lightweight Shinya Aoki, and now he faces another recent Aoki adversary in Kawajiri. It’s long been said that Kawajiri was the Japanese lightweight who most resembled an American-style fighter, given his emphasis on boxing, wrestling, and weight-cutting. Moreover, these two met once before, in an extremely close PRIDE fight in 2006 (Melendez took the decision). Kawajiri is now 32, and has been fighting for 11 years; this may be his last chance to make ascend to the uppermost rungs of lightweight MMA. In his last fight, he took a commanding decision over Josh Thomson, who is himself 1-1 with Melendez and endured a five-round war with him in their last fight. This is one strikes me as too close to call.
- #4 Shinya Aoki vs. Lyle Beerbohm. This is a rebuilding fight for both men. Aoki recently suffered a supremely embarrassing loss in a mixed K-1/MMA rules bout on new year’s eve against kicboxer Yuichiro Nagashima (which some are absurdly counting as an official MMA loss since it occurred in the second, MMA-rules round, but never mind), and Beerbohm lost a decision to journeyman Pat Healy in Feburary, losing his undefeated status. Aoki has much more to lose: status as a top lightweight is on the line here, whereas Beerbohm need only put in a sterling performance to regain some luster (in my mind, anyway). Both men are grapplers, with Aoki having the edge in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and Beerbohm in wrestling. Beerbohm holds an additional advantage in stateside cage fighting experience. And most importantly, both men are known for wearing colorful pants. I think Beerbohm will follow the Gilbert Melendez gameplan and score the upset.
