Post-Strikeforce: Feijao vs. Henderson ranking update

Almost forgot to do this one. Though Feijao was ranked at #11 before the bout, I’ve opted to raise Henderson all the way up to #9 following his win. A win over a #11 fighter, combined with the fact that he’s undefeated it his current light-heavyweight stint and already holds a win over Rich Franklin, makes his P3Y record more attractive than that of Franklin or Thiago Silva.

LIGHT-HEAVYWEIGHT (205 lbs.) TOP 15

#	Name	Pro MMA Record	P3Y Record at LHW	Notes
1	Mauricio Rua	19-4	3-1 (loss avenged)	UFC light-heavyweight champion
2	Rashad Evans	15-1-1	4-1-1
3	Quinton Jackson	31-8	3-2
4	Lyoto Machida	16-1	4-1
5	Jon Jones	12-1	12-1 (1 DQ)
6	Ryan Bader	12-1	6-1
7	Forrest Griffin	18-6	3-2
8	Antonio Rogerio Nogueira	18-4	6-1
9	Dan Henderson	27-8	3-0	Moved to #9 following a win over former #11 Rafael Cavalcante for the Strikeforce light-heavyweight title at Strikeforce: Feijao vs. Henderson on 3/6/11.
10	Thiago Silva	15-2	3-2
11	Rich Franklin	28-6	2-2
12	Rafael Cavalcante	10-3	6-2
13	Muhammed Lawal	7-0	7-0
14	Gegard Mousasi	29-3-1	4-1
15	Alexander Gustafsson	11-1	9-1

Quick note: Rafael Cavalcante vs. Dan Henderson at Strikeforce tonight

Tonight’s Strikeforce show–the prelims are underway as I write–features one ranking-relevant bout: #11 light-heavyweight Rafael “Feijao” Cavalcante defending his title against Dan Henderson. Since he returned to 205 lbs. with a win over Renato “Babalu” Sobral this past December, I’ve got Henderson somewhere in the #16-#18 range, so a loss wouldn’t be terrible damaging for Cavalcante. Nonetheless, winning this fight against a highly-decorated  but now 40-year-old veteran like Henderson is crucial to proving that he’s got the talent to be a major player at light-heavyweight.

Post-Strikeforce: Fedor vs. Silva ranking update

Fedor Emelianenko’s continued fall from grace, this time at the hands of Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva, produces the following shakeup at heavyweight:

HEAVYWEIGHT (265 lbs. limit) TOP 15

#	Name	Pro MMA Record	P3Y Record at HW	Notes
1	Cain Velasquez	8-0	9-0	UFC heavyweight champion
2	Brock Lesnar	5-2	4-2 (one loss avenged)
3	Fabricio Werdum	14-4-1	4-1
4	Antonio Silva	15-2	7-1	Moved from #11 to #4 following a win over Fedor Emelianenko at Strikeforce: Fedor vs. Silva on 2/12/11.
5	Shane Carwin	12-1	5-1
6	Fedor Emelianenko	31-3	3-2
7	Frank Mir	14-5	4-2
8	Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira	32-5-1	2-2
9	Alistair Overeem	34-11	8-0	Strikeforce heavyweight champion (1 defense).
10	Brett Rogers	11-2	5-2
11	Junior Dos Santos	12-1	7-0
12	Cheick Kongo	15-6-2	4-3-1
13	Mirko Filipovic	26-8-2	4-2
14	Ben Rothwell	31-7	9-2
15	Jon Madsen	7-0	7-0

Quick note: Fedor Emelianeko vs. Antonio Silva at Strikeforce this Saturday

The first round of Strikeforce’s heavyweight grand prix begins this Saturday, and as far as rankings go, the fight to watch is #4 Fedor Emelianenko vs. #11 Antonio Silva. The big question here is how Fedor responds to his first genuine career loss. He’s 34 now, nearly 11 years into a career in MMA, and speaking openly of impending retirement. In his last fight, he walked into a Fabricio Werdum triangle choke while seemingly in a rush to get the fight over with. He still trains with low-level Russian fighters somewhere in Stary Oskol. Is his heart still in it?

Fedor fans may find comfort in the fact that Silva struggled a bit with the unheralded Mike Kyle in his most recent bout. Still, he’s a huge heavyweight, with acumen in both striking and Brazilian jiu-jitsu–certainly no pushover. This will be the fight where we’ll find out what a rebounding Fedor Emelianenko looks like.

Post-Strikeforce: Diaz vs. Cyborg ranking update + Reconsideration: Jorge Santiago

I’ve opted to do something slightly unusual with Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza’s win over Robbie Lawler. Prior to the fight, Souza was the #14 middleweight, with Lawler coming at #11. Ordinarily, I wouldn’t move Souza any higher than #11 with a win. But this got me thinking about the P3Y records of the fighters at #8-10: Paulo Filho, Dan Henderson, and Jorge Santiago.

Filho and Henderson are hanging on by a thread, with none of the wins that got them to their current position left in their P3Y records. Not so for Santiago, whose wins over Kazuo Misaki and Mamed Khalidov are still fresh. So why do I have him below them?

It makes more sense for Filho than for Henderson. Henderson is there not on the strength of his recent middleweight wins, but because he still had his one really strong middleweight win–also against Misaki, as it turns out–in his P3Y record when he returned to 185 lbs. in the UFC. Filho was the man to beat Misaki after Misaki dethroned Henderson in PRIDE, so it makes sense that Filho would be ranked above Santiago even after Santiago beat Misaki himself.

But what about after Santiago avenged his loss against Mamed Khalidov? By then, Filho’s win over Misaki had expired, as had Henderson’s. And Frank Trigg, who was at one time ranked above Santiago for having beaten Misaki first, fell out of the top 15 due to inactivity.

But that wasn’t enough quite yet. At the time he rematched Khalidov, there was still a buffer between the Santiago/Henderson pair and Filho, in the form of both Thales Leites and Alessio Sakara. Santiago couldn’t have leapfrogged them all.

But he should have leapfrogged Henderson, at least. And that would mean that by the time Santiago rematched Misaki this past August, he would have been right below Filho. Having won that fight, Santiago should have gone above Filho then and there.

So now, since I make these things up as I go along, I’m moving Santiago above Henderson and Filho. And with his win over Lawler, Souza’s got a better P3Y record than Henderson and Filho too.

Meanwhile, Lawler is all out of top-15-worthy wins in his P3Y resume, so he drops out of these rankings entirely.

Got all that? Here’s how it looks:

MIDDLEWEIGHT (183-185 lbs.) TOP 15

#	Name	Pro MMA Record	P3Y Record at MW	Notes
1	Anderson Silva	27-4	5-0	UFC middleweight champion (7 defenses)
2	Chael Sonnen	25-11-1	5-2
3	Yushin Okami	26-5	5-1
4	Nate Marquardt	30-9-2	5-2
5	Demian Maia	13-2	7-2
6	Jake Shields	26-4-1	3-0
7	Alessio Sakara	15-7	4-1
8	Jorge Santiago	23-8	7-1 (loss avenged)	Sengoku middleweight champion (2 defenses)
9	Ronaldo Souza	13-2	7-1	Strikeforce middleweight champion (1 defense); moved to #9 following a win over Robbie Lawler on 1/29/11.
10	Paulo Filho	19-2-1	4-1-1
11	Dan Henderson	26-7	2-2
12	Wanderlei Silva	33-10-1	1-0
13	Brian Stann	10-3	2-0
14	Riki Fukuda	17-4-	9-1
15	Mamed Khalidov	21-4-2	3-1-1

Quick note: Ronaldo Souza vs. Robbie Lawler at Strikeforce

Tomorrow night’s Strikeforce show has one fight of ranking interest: the Strikeforce middleweight title bout between #11 Robbie Lawler and #14 Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza. Given how Lawler fared against Jake Shields, it’s hard for me not to favor Jacare in this one. And that would be bad news for Lawler’s ranking, which is hanging on by a thread, with his one crucial middleweight win–over Frank Trigg in 2007–having long since passed the three-year expiration point.

Strikeforce: Henderson vs. Babalu ranking preview

There are three fights of ranking interest at tomorrow’s Strikeforce event. None of them is the titular main event, and none features two top-15 fighters, but hey, you take what you can get sometimes.

Heavyweight

• #11 Antonio Silva vs. Mike Kyle. To think, if Silva’s cardio hadn’t failed him, Fabricio Werdum might have never gotten the chance to be the man that dethroned Fedor. But “Bigfoot” was able to rebound from that loss and capitalize against his next name opponent, taking a one-sided decision of faltering former great Andrei Arlovski. Mike Kyle, best known for deserving to be banned from the sport for going insane on an opponent with illegal strikes back in 2006 (and second-best known for upsetting current Strikeforce light-heavyweight champion Rafael Cavalcante in 2009), Kyle is the rare last-minute replacement with more credibility than the original opponent. In this case, that opponent was Valentijn Overeem, best known as Alistair’s underachieving older brother (career record 28-25), and second-best known as one of the guys that submitted the legendary Randy Couture in the latter’s brief stint in Japan. I’m rambling right now because there’s not much to say. Silva pretty much has to win.

Middlweight

• #11 Robbie Lawler vs. Matt Lindland. Lindland was once an easy top-5 middleweight, but has seen better days. Something very similar could be said about the much younger Robbie Lawler, who is holding on to his top-15 ranking entirely out of precedent, since his current P3Y ledger is nothing to crow about. Lawler needs to win this just to keep his spot; in ranking terms, it’s all risk. But after a lackluster decision loss in a catchweight to Renato “Babalu” Sobral (competing in the main event), a win, any win, would be a much needed shot in the arm.

Welterweight

• #15 Paul Daley vs. Scott Smith. Things were looking up for Paul Daley: he was in the UFC, he pulled off an upset against touted middleweight-turned-welterweight Martin Kampmann, and his crowd-pleasing style was earning accolades in the world’s biggest MMA organization. Then he ran into Josh Koscheck, lost in lackluster fashion, and got so frustrated that he blatantly punched Koshceck after the bell (I imagine Daley and Mike Kyle will exchange an understanding nod backstage). He quickly found himself out the UFC and relegated to minor shows against inferior competition, while former foe Kampmann worked his way back into contention with a win over the Koscheck-vanquishing Paulo Thiago. Daley’s next bid for relevance will come in the anemic Strikeforce welterweight division. A bout against champ Nick Diaz seems immanent, provided Daley acquits himself well in this, his debut bout. His opponent is Scott Smith, best known as an iron-jawed brawler responsible for more than one of MMA’s most absurd come-from-behind victories. As long as Daley remembers not to count Smith out until the final bell, his superior striking should do the trick here.

Quick note: Josh Thomson vs. Gesias Cavalcante at Strikeforce: Diaz vs. Noons

There’s one bout of ranking interest at tomorrow night’s Strikeforce show: #12 lightweight Josh Thomson vs. Gesias Cavalcante. “J.Z.” was only too recently a top-ranked lightweight, going unranked on May 1st of last year and going 1-1 since then, his only win over unranked Japanese prospect Katsunori Kikuno. This is his ticket back to the top 15–if he wins, that is.

Post-Strikeforce: Houston ranking update

Following Rafael “Feijao” Cavalcante’s win over Muhammed “King Mo” Lawal for the Strikeforce light-heavyweight title last night, the rankings at 205 lbs. shake out this way:

LIGHT-HEAVYWEIGHT (205 lbs.) TOP 15

#	Name	Pro MMA Record	P3Y Record at LHW	Notes
1	Mauricio Rua	19-4	3-2	UFC light-heavyweight champion
2	Lyoto Machida	16-1	6-1
3	Rashad Evans	15-1-1	5-1-1
4	Anderson Silva	25-4	2-0
5	Forrest Griffin	17-6	3-2
6	Quinton Jackson	30-8	3-2
7	Antonio Rogerio Nogueira	18-3	6-0
8	Cyrille Diabate	16-6-1	5-0
9	Thiago Silva	14-2	4-2
10	Ryan Bader	11-0	9-0
11	Rich Franklin	28-5	2-1
12	Rafael Cavalcante	10-2	6-1	Moved to #12 following a win over Muhammed Lawal for the Strikeforce at light-heavyweight title at Strikeforce: Houston on 8/21/10.
13	Muhammed Lawal	7-0	7-0
14	Gegard Mousasi	28-3-1	3-1
15	Luis Arthur Cane	10-2	4-2

Reconsideration / rule change: Brock Lesnar and avenged losses

The recent conundrum over the heavyweight rankings following Fabricio Werdum’s upset victory over former #1 Fedor Emelianenko got me thinking about avenged losses. If you read my post after the event, you saw that I opted to put Werdum at #1 because I couldn’t justify dropping Fedor below former #2 Brock Lesnar. The deciding factor there was that both Fedor and Lesnar had one loss, but Lesnar’s, to a nigh-unranked Frank Mir, was worse.

But as we all know, Lesnar avenged that loss in dramatic fashion. What’s more, he did it after Mir shot up the rankings with a win over perennial upper-top-10 competitor Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. Shouldn’t that count for something?

Ultimately, I decided that it should. It seems sensible to me that if Fighter A loses to Fighter B, but later beats Fighter B at a time when Fighter B is ranked as high or higher than he was at the time of their first bout, then the original loss should not longer count against Fighter A for ranking purposes. This is the case with Mir and Lesnar. So that’s the new rule.

With the loss to Mir no longer weighing him down, should Lesnar rise from #2 to #1 following Fedor’s loss to Werdum, or should I keep Werdum at #1? It’s a tough call–Lesnar has two top level in the past three years wins to Werdum’s one–over Randy Couture and Frank Mir, plus a solid lower-top-15 win over Heath Herring–but Werdum’s win over Fedor is more prestigious than either of Lesnar’s. But Werdum has that oustanding loss to a then-unranked Junior Dos Santos. I think that gives Lesnar the edge.

So with that, I now have Brock Lesnar at #1, and tomorrow evening’s Lesnar/Carwin UFC title bout is definitely for the #1 spot.

HEAVYWEIGHT (265 lbs. limit) TOP 15

#	Name	Pro MMA Record	P3Y Record at HW	Notes
1	Brock Lesnar	4-1	3-1 (loss avenged)	UFC heavyweight champion (1 defense)
2	Fabricio Werdum	14-4-1	5-1	Moved to #2 following a win over Fedor Emelianenko at Strikeforce: Fedor vs. Werdum on 6/26/10.
3	Fedor Emelianenko	31-2	3-1
4	Shane Carwin	12-0	7-0
5	Cain Velasquez	7-0	5-0
6	Frank Mir	13-5	4-2
7	Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira	32-5-1	3-1
8	Alistair Overeem	33-11	8-1	Strikeforce heavyweight champion (1 defense).
9	Brett Rogers	10-2	5-2
10	Randy Couture	18-10	2-2
11	Junior Dos Santos	11-1	7-1
12	Antonio Silva	14-2	6-1	Moved to #12 following a win over Andrei Arlovski at Strikeforce: Heavy Artillery on 4/15/10.
13	Gabriel Gonzaga	11-5	3-4
14	Cheick Kongo	15-6-1	5-3
15	Andrei Arlovski	15-8	3-3