Tomorrow night’s UFC 116 is being jeered in some corners for being a top-heavy card with not much going on underneath its huge main event. These people are not wrong, but it could be worse: at least we’ve got three fights with top 15 implications. Here they are:
Heavyweight
- #1 Brock Lesnar vs. #4 Shane Carwin. Even when I briefly had Fabricio Werdum at #1, before the addition of a new ranking guideline, I figured this fight would probably determine the new top heavyweight, given how close everyone’s records are amongst the top 4. One more really good win would put just about everybody over the line. That seems to be the more or less universal sentiment: with Fedor dethroned, and Werdum suffering from an all-too-recent loss to Junior Dos Santos, whoever takes this one is king of the mountain. As for the fight itself: I wish I could remember which blog or message board poster suggest that when in doubt, pick the better wrestler. It seemed very wise to me. So I guess I’ll go with Brock.
Middleweight
- #14 Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Chris Leben. As we all know, this was originally scheduled to be a bout between Akiyama and #15 Wanderlei Silva, but Silva got injured in training, and for about half a day, Akiyama put it out there that he might not fight rather than accept Leben as a replacement. This caused some people to overreact, producing a lot of desire to see Akiyama lose, not to mention quite a few predictions that he’d lose to his journeyman opponent as well. I think that as long as Akiyama fights smart–that is, doesn’t try to trade punches with the UFC’s resident iron-chinned brawler–he takes this one more often than not, especially with Leben having just fought two weeks ago. Of course, if he doesn’t, he’s gone from the top 15.
Lightweight
- #10 George Sotiropoulos vs. Kurt Pellegrino. Many people, myself included, wondered if Sotiropoulos was in too deep with his last opponent, then-#10 and former UFC title contender Joe Stevenson. His victory there–one of the most commanding displays of Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu prowess in recent memory–put him on the map as a top-tier lightweight. Just looking at records, one would want to favor Sotiropoulos in this one. Pellegrino lost a decision to Stevenson in 2007, and was submitted by Nate Diaz the following year, after which Diaz lost to Stevenson as well. But of course MMA is never that simple. Pellegrino is no slouch as a grappler, wrestling and BJJ both, and is on a 4-fight win streak. Time will tell if Sotiropoulos is as good as the Stevenson fight suggested.
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