UFC 116 ranking preview

Tomorrow night’s UFC 116 is being jeered in some corners for being a top-heavy card with not much going on underneath its huge main event. These people are not wrong, but it could be worse: at least we’ve got three fights with top 15 implications. Here they are:

Heavyweight

• #1 Brock Lesnar vs. #4 Shane Carwin. Even when I briefly had Fabricio Werdum at #1, before the addition of a new ranking guideline, I figured this fight would probably determine the new top heavyweight, given how close everyone’s records are amongst the top 4. One more really good win would put just about everybody over the line. That seems to be the more or less universal sentiment: with Fedor dethroned, and Werdum suffering from an all-too-recent loss to Junior Dos Santos, whoever takes this one is king of the mountain. As for the fight itself: I wish I could remember which blog or message board poster suggest that when in doubt, pick the better wrestler. It seemed very wise to me. So I guess I’ll go with Brock.

Middleweight

• #14 Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Chris Leben. As we all know, this was originally scheduled to be a bout between Akiyama and #15 Wanderlei Silva, but Silva got injured in training, and for about half a day, Akiyama put it out there that he might not fight rather than accept Leben as a replacement. This caused some people to overreact, producing a lot of desire to see Akiyama lose, not to mention quite a few predictions that he’d lose to his journeyman opponent as well. I think that as long as Akiyama fights smart–that is, doesn’t try to trade punches with the UFC’s resident iron-chinned brawler–he takes this one more often than not, especially with Leben having just fought two weeks ago. Of course, if he doesn’t, he’s gone from the top 15.

Lightweight

• #10 George Sotiropoulos vs. Kurt Pellegrino. Many people, myself included, wondered if Sotiropoulos was in too deep with his last opponent, then-#10 and former UFC title contender Joe Stevenson. His victory there–one of the most commanding displays of Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu prowess in recent memory–put him on the map as a top-tier lightweight. Just looking at records, one would want to favor Sotiropoulos in this one. Pellegrino lost a decision to Stevenson in 2007, and was submitted by Nate Diaz the following year, after which Diaz lost to Stevenson as well. But of course MMA is never that simple. Pellegrino is no slouch as a grappler, wrestling and BJJ both, and is on a 4-fight win streak. Time will tell if Sotiropoulos is as good as the Stevenson fight suggested.

Post-UFC 111 ranking update

Last night’s UFC 111 caused shake-ups in two divisions. The first is obviously heavyweight; the second, more minor shake-up, comes as a result of Kurt Pellegrino’s win over Fabricio Camoes. Camoes was coming off a draw with now-former top 15 lightweight Caol Uno, and per the guidelines on draws, this calls for Pellegrino to be ranked above Uno. I’ve opted to treat this like a loss for Uno, with him dropping down prior to having Pellegrino slotted above him. As a result, Tyson Griffin moves into the top 15.

HEAVYWEIGHT (265 lbs. limit) TOP 15

#	Name	Pro MMA Record	P3Y Record at HW	Notes
1	Fedor Emelianenko	31-1	4-0
2	Brock Lesnar	4-1	4-1	UFC heavyweight champion (1 defense)
3	Shane Carwin	12-0	7-0	Moved to #3 following a win over Frank Mir at UFC 111 on 3/27/10.
4	Cain Velasquez	7-0	5-0
5	Frank Mir	13-5	4-2
6	Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira	32-5-1	3-1
7	Brett Rogers	10-1	5-1
8	Randy Couture	16-10	2-2
9	Junior Dos Santos	11-1	9-1
10	Andrei Arlovski	15-7	4-2
11	Fabrico Werdum	13-4-1	4-2
12	Gabriel Gonzaga	11-5	4-4
13	Cheick Kongo	15-6-1	6-3
14	Mirko Filipovic	26-7-2	4-3
15	Alistair Overeem	32-11	8-1	Strikeforce heavyweight champion.

UFC 111 ranking preview

Lots of important fights happening tomorrow evening at UFC 111. Let’s take a look.

Heavyweight

• #3 Frank Mir vs. #11 Shane Carwin. It’s been over a year since Carwin last fought; were this card just a few days later I’d have him unranked going into this bout. Somehow the guy has managed to parlay a win over Gabriel Gonzaga first into a title shot against Brock Lesnar, then an interim title fight with Mir after Lesnar pulled out. Such is the power of being a huge white guy with a string of first-round (T)KOs, I guess. It’s so powerful, in fact, that the BloodyElbow.com “consensus” rankings have the guy all the way up at #6, above the likes of Junior Dos Santos and Brett Rogers. But enough of my bellyaching: Carwin maybe a serious threat to Mir. This fight is interesting precisely because we really know so little about where either guy stands. Mir, who is probably growing new muscles as I type this, has yet to beat a more elite opponent in his recent run than a rapidly-aging Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira–a great win from a rankings perspective, but less so as an indicator of present-day fighting prowess. As mentioned, Carwin’s best opponent was Gonzaga, and the man still hasn’t been tested on the mat. With such big question marks around both fighters, there’s only so much we can learn. But we’ll learn something, and that’s nice.