We’ve got three bouts with top-15 ranking implications going on this Saturday at UFC 123. Here they are:
Light-heavyweight
- #2 Lyoto Machida vs. Quinton Jackson. Jackson was only too recently a top-ranked fighter himself, coming in at #5 before going unranked following a recent rule change around these parts which removed all fighters who haven’t won a fight in 18 months. A win here would vault Jackson right back into the top 10, probably right around #5 again. To accomplish that, though, he’ll have to beat someone with a style tailor-made to beat his. Machida’s quick, accurate, defensively acute and kick-heavy striking attack will likely provide a tough test for “Rampage,” whose slower and more conventional boxing style probably won’t offer much in the way of surprises or new challenges for the karate man. Jackson holds the advantage in size and power, but there are also omnipresent questions about his work ethic, commitment, and overall state of mind. On paper, the deck is stacked so such against Jackson that I can’t help but think we’ll be at least somewhat surprised by how the fight plays out on Saturday.
Welterweight
- #3 Matt Hughes vs. B.J. Penn. The hook for this fight has nothing to do with standings in the division and everything to do with the long-running feud between Penn and Hughes, which began with their first bout, for the UFC welterweight title in 2004. I seem to be one of the few keeping Hughes at the top of the rankings; most, including the UFC matchmakers and perhaps Hughes himself, view him as a senior-circuit fighter with no business mixing it up with younger contenders anymore. For my part, I think a guy needs to lose to someone worse than Georges St. Pierre to move down the rankings much (I don’t count the Thiago Alves fight at welterweight, since Alves came in several pounds over). Anyway, this would leave me in a somewhat awkward position were Penn to win, since he probably has no intention of sticking around the division after this fight, win or lose. But I also can’t bring myself to root for Matt Hughes. Quite the conundrum.
Lightweight
- #9 George Sotiropoulos vs. Joe Lauzon. This is kind of a weird fight to me, since Sotiropulos is one of the lightweight division’s only rising stars, and Lauzon is a mainstay of the low-to-mid tiers of the division, less than a year removed from a loss to Sam Stout. Why make this fight after Sotiropulos has just beaten the more prominent former title contender Joe Stevenson? Why not look for a bout with the likes of Kenny Florian or Sean Sherk? I don’t know. I’m sure there’s a good reason. In any case, Lauzon isn’t a no-hoper here. I suspect he’s a good enough grappler not to be completely out of his depth with the expert Sotiropoulos (although I admit I thought the same thing about Stevenson), and he’s probably a better striker. Sotiropoulos’s striking features the somewhat disorienting combination of nice-looking technique (to a kn0w-nothing like me, at least) that translates to actual success less often than it looks like it should. Lauzon might even have the wrestling advantage, too. I wouldn’t be shocked by an upset here. But I wouldn’t count on it, either.
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