UFC 123 ranking preview

We’ve got three bouts with top-15 ranking implications going on this Saturday at UFC 123. Here they are:

Light-heavyweight

• #2 Lyoto Machida vs. Quinton Jackson. Jackson was only too recently a top-ranked fighter himself, coming in at #5 before going unranked following a recent rule change around these parts which removed all fighters who haven’t won a fight in 18 months. A win here would vault Jackson right back into the top 10, probably right around #5 again. To accomplish that, though, he’ll have to beat someone with a style tailor-made to beat his. Machida’s quick, accurate, defensively acute and kick-heavy striking attack will likely provide a tough test for “Rampage,” whose slower and more conventional boxing style probably won’t offer much in the way of surprises or new challenges for the karate man. Jackson holds the advantage in size and power, but there are also omnipresent questions about his work ethic, commitment, and overall state of mind. On paper, the deck is stacked so such against Jackson that I can’t help but think we’ll be at least somewhat surprised by how the fight plays out on Saturday.

Welterweight

• #3 Matt Hughes vs. B.J. Penn. The hook for this fight has nothing to do with standings in the division and everything to do with the long-running feud between Penn and Hughes, which began with their first bout, for the UFC welterweight title in 2004. I seem to be one of the few keeping Hughes at the top of the rankings; most, including the UFC matchmakers and perhaps Hughes himself, view him as a senior-circuit fighter with no business mixing it up with younger contenders anymore. For my part, I think a guy needs to lose to someone worse than Georges St. Pierre to move down the rankings much (I don’t count the Thiago Alves fight at welterweight, since Alves came in several pounds over). Anyway, this would leave me in a somewhat awkward position were Penn to win, since he probably has no intention of sticking around the division after this fight, win or lose. But I also can’t bring myself to root for Matt Hughes. Quite the conundrum.

Lightweight

• #9 George Sotiropoulos vs. Joe Lauzon. This is kind of a weird fight to me, since Sotiropulos is one of the lightweight division’s only rising stars, and Lauzon is a  mainstay of the low-to-mid tiers of the division, less than a year removed from a loss to Sam Stout. Why make this fight after Sotiropulos has just beaten the more prominent former title contender Joe Stevenson? Why not look for a bout with the likes of Kenny Florian or Sean Sherk? I don’t know. I’m sure there’s a good reason. In any case, Lauzon isn’t a no-hoper here. I suspect he’s a good enough grappler not to be completely out of his depth with the expert Sotiropoulos (although I admit I thought the same thing about Stevenson), and he’s probably a better striker. Sotiropoulos’s striking features the somewhat disorienting combination of nice-looking technique (to a kn0w-nothing like me, at least) that translates to actual success less often than it looks like it should. Lauzon might even have the wrestling advantage, too.  I wouldn’t be shocked by an upset here. But I wouldn’t count on it, either.

UFC 117 ranking preview

This Saturday’s UFC 117 show will feature five bouts with top-15 competitors. Let’s take a look.

Heavyweight

• #11 Junior Dos Santos vs. Roy Nelson. JDS has been the dark horse of the UFC heavyweight division since knocking out Fabricio Werdum in 2008. Nelson, meanwhile, is a longtime lower-top-20 heavy enjoying the most hype of his career following his run through a thin field on The Ultimate Fighter reality show, followed by a knockout win over Brendan Schaub on the live finale and another knockout over 7-foot prospect Stefan Struve (who had also been knocked out by Dos Santos a year earlier). To his credit, Nelson has had good showings against Jeff Monson and Andrei Arlovski; in the former he was the victim of a widely despised decision, and in the latter the recipient of a botched referee stand-up while working on a submission. Still, I don’t like his chances against “Cigano.” Should Nelson win, however, the ranking picture will be interesting: with those recent losses to Monson and Arlovski, I’ll have to think hard about how far to drop Dos Santos and how high to raise Nelson. We might be looking at a UFC title challenger outside the top 15.

Middleweight

• #1 Anderson Silva vs. #2 Chael Sonnen. It’s kind of amazing how rarely you see fights between the #1 and #2 in a division. No mystery about the ranking implications here. Anyway, a lot of people are looking forward to this one, not because they think Sonnen has much of a chance, but because they think he’ll be aggressive enough–and has talked enough trash beforehand–to get Silva to actually fight him, rather than dance around him as Silva was content to do against Demian Maia and Thales Leites. As for the challenger’s chances It must be said Sonnen will be the best MMA-style wrestler Silva has ever faced; still, Sonnen’s liabilities in the striking and submission defense departments present two clear paths to victory for his muay Thai expert/BJJ black belt opponent.

Welterweight

• #2 Jon Fitch vs. Thiago Alves. A rematch long in the making between two guys looking for another shot at welterweight champ Georges St. Pierre, who has soundly beaten both of them. Alves’s crowd-pleasing muay Thai sprawl-n-brawl vs. Fitch’s finish-averse top position grinding. Alves last competed at UFC 100 in July of 2009, meaning that he’ll have been unranked for about a week by the time this fight rolls around. I had him at #2, and I’d put him there again once the fight starts, so this fight is, in effect, between the #2 and #3 in the division.
• #3 Matt Hughes vs. Ricardo Almeida. This is an interesting one. Almeida is 2-0 at welterweight, and had put together a couple wins at middleweight before dropping down, too. But none of those wins was terribly high-profile. He’s getting a shot at the legendary Hughes because he’s of roughly the same generation in MMA–i.e. he’s an opponent Hughes would take–and maybe because of the built-in storyline with Hughes having just beaten Almeida’s mentor, Renzo Gracie (and fellow Renzo mentee Matt Serra to boot). What makes this interesting from a ranking perspective is that with Almeida being undefeated at 170, he’ll shoot straight to Hughes’s spot if he wins, bypassing a whole lot of guys that are probably tougher fights at this stage of their career. I think Hughes is capable of taking this fight, but if he doesn’t, it will be fascinating to see whether Almeida subsequently takes a serious run at the title or not.
• #12 Ben Saunders vs. Dennis Hallman. Speaking of Matt Hughes: Dennis Hallman is best-known for scoring two first-round submissions over Hughes, one in 1998 and the other in 2000 at UFC 29. Things didn’t go as well for Hallman in subsequent UFC appearances: he lost to Jens Pulver at UFC 33, Frank Trigg at UFC 48, Jorge Rivera at UFC 55, and most recently, John Howard at the aforementioned Ultimate Fighter 10 season finale. But Hallman keeps earning his way back, and despite losing his last bout, he’s getting a shot at knocking Saunders out of the top 15.

UFC 112 + Bellator XIII ranking preview

The remainder of this week promises four MMA bouts featuring top-15 competitors: three on Saturday’s UFC 112 card, and one at Thursday’s Bellator show, which happens to be the kickoff event for their second set of tournaments. Here are the details.

Middleweight

• #1 Anderson Silva vs. #4 Demian Maia. You probably know the story: Silva was set to face Vitor Belfort, Belfort pulled out with an injury, new #1 contender Chael Sonnen couldn’t be ready in time, and so Demian Maia–who holds a win over Sonnen from last year–takes the title shot. You probably also know that Maia, who boasts a stellar ground game but remedial stand-up, is fully expected to bite the dust in the early rounds. Typical caveats about how “anything can happen in MMA” aside, I won’t tell you otherwise.