UFC 114 ranking preview

As far as top-ranked fighters goes, UFC 114 is all about the light-heavyweights, with three of the top 15 competing, and a fourth returning to the top 10 from inactivity, win or lose:

• #3 Rashad Evans vs. Quinton Jackson. Were he not to have gone inactive, I’d have Jackson at #6 right now; obviously, if he wins, he’ll move to #3 and almost certainly get a title shot. A lot of folks seem to think that an in-shape Jackson takes this one easily. I’m not so sure of that myself, but my thoughts are half-formed, so I won’t bore you with the details.
• #6 Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs. Jason Brilz. Nogueira’s original opponent was #5 Forrest Griffin, but we’ll have to make do with Brilz, who’s looking to play the Sokoudjou role here and score a massive upset.
• #7 Luis Arthur Cane vs. Cyrille Diabate. Cane was last seen losing badly to the aforementioned Nogueira (no shame in that), and now finds himself shunted onto the prelims against PRIDE veteran and UFC débutante Diabate. So now both Cane and Nog find themselves defending their spots against hungry underdogs. Diabate, though15-6 overall, is actually 4-0 P3y, so a win here sends him straight to #7.

Strikeforce: Heavy Artillery ranking preview

Tonight’s Strikeforce show features two major heavyweight bouts:

• #7 Brett Rogers vs. #14 Alistair Overeem. Overeem has become a staple of MMA top-tens for no good reason lately, so this is his chance to finally have the record to back it up. He matches up well with Rogers, too. Still, I’m not yet sold on Overeem’s rebirth as a heavyweight, so I’m not counting Rogers out here.
• #10 Andrei Arlovski vs. Antonio Silva. A critical fight for both men. Arlovski has lost two straight, the second to the aforementioned Rogers, who was a major underdog. Silva, meanwhile, has been touted as a prospect for a long time, but has come up short in fights both big (vs. #11 Fabricio Werdum for Strikeforce this past November) and small (vs. Eric Pele in 2006). How many more chances will he get to establish himself near the top of the division?

Post-UFC 113 ranking update

Mauricio “Shogun” Rua unseats Lyoto Machida as UFC champion, and so assumes the #1 spot:

LIGHT-HEAVYWEIGHT (205 lbs.) TOP 15

#	Name	Pro MMA Record	P3Y Record at LHW	Notes
1	Mauricio Rua	19-4	3-2	UFC light-heavyweight champion
2	Lyoto Machida	16-1	6-1
3	Rashad Evans	14-1-1	4-1-1
4	Anderson Silva	25-4	2-0
5	Forrest Griffin	17-6	4-2
6	Antonio Rogerio Nogueira	18-3	6-0
7	Luis Arthur Cane	10-2	4-2
8	Thiago Silva	14-2	6-2
9	Ryan Bader	11-0	10-0
10	Muhammed Lawal	7-0	7-0	Strikeforce light-heavyweight champion
11	Gegard Mousasi	27-3-1	2-1
12	Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou	7-5	3-4
13	Randy Couture	18-10	2-0
14	Vladimir Matyushenko	24-4	7-1
15	Keith Jardine	15-7-1	2-5

UFC 113 ranking preview

Two fights between top-15 competitors are scheduled for tomorrow night’s UFC event. And they are:

Light-heavyweight

• #1 Lyoto Machida vs. #4 Mauricio Rua. The rematch from their controversial title bout last October, Karate vs. Muay Thai redux, and Machida’s chance to solidify himself as #1 light-heavyweight after what many saw as a gift decision the first time around. Should be a great one!

Welterweight

• #7 Josh Koscheck vs. #10 Paul Daley. With the expiry of his victory over Diego Sanchez, Koscheck is hurting for top-quality wins. He needs this one, more than Paul Daley, who’s got a crowd-pleasing style and is the underdog besides. Look for Koscheck to return to his wrestling roots in this one.

Thales Leites vs. Jesse Taylor at MFC 25

This very evening, Friday May 7th, #9 middleweight Thales Leites takes on Jesse Taylor at MFC 25.

Though Taylor is ranked well below him, this fight offers Leites the chance to move up: current #8 Paulo Filho just saw his one recent top-ranked win, over Kazuo Misaki, pass the P3Y mark. A win here would move Leites up one spot by default.

Leites is also the favorite here, so his prospects are good.

UPDATE: Leites wins, moves to #8.

Post-Bellator XVII ranking update

With former #9 lightweight Roger Huerta’s loss to the previously unheralded Pat Curran at last night’s Bellator event, “El Matador” drops out, and Curran comes in at #15 with a bullet:

LIGHTWEIGHT (154-160 lbs.) TOP 15

#	Name	Pro MMA Record	P3Y Record at LW	Notes
1	Frank Edgar	12-1	6-1	UFC lightweight champion
2	Gilbert Melendez	17-2	5-2	Strikeforce lightweight champion (1 defense)
3	B.J. Penn	15-6-1	5-1
4	Shinya Aoki	23-5	9-2	DREAM lightweight champion
5	Kenny Florian	13-4	7-1
6	Eddie Alvarez	20-2	8-1	Bellator lightweight champion
7	Tatsuya Kawajiri	26-5-2	7-2
8	Gray Maynard	8-0	7-0
9	Joachim Hansen	19-9-1	4-4
10	George Sotiropoulos	12-2	5-0
11	Gesias Cavalcante	14-3-1	3-2
12	Joe Stevenson	31-11	4-4
13	Spencer Fisher	22-5	4-2
14	Josh Thomson	16-3	4-1
15	Pat Curran	11-3	11-3	Entered the top 15 following a win over Roger Huerta at Bellator XVII on 5/6/10

Post-WEC 48 rankings update

Here’s how featherweight looks after last night’s WEC show:

FEATHERWEIGHT (143-145 lbs.) TOP 10

#	Name	Pro MMA Record	P3Y Record at FW	Notes
1	Jose Aldo	17-1	9-0	WEC featherweight champion (1 defense)
2	Manvel Gamburyan	11-4	3-0	Moved to #2 following a win over Mike Thomas Brown at WEC 48 on 4/2408
3	Mike Thomas Brown	23-6	5-2
4	Urijah Faber	23-4	7-3
5	Josh Grispi	13-1	9-0
6	Raphael Assuncao	14-2	6-1
7	L.C. Davis	16-2	11-2
8	Deividas Taurosevicius	12-4	2-1
9	Mackens Semerzier	4-1	4-1
10	Michihiro Omigawa	10-8-1	6-2-1

WEC 48 ranking preview

WEC’s first pay-per-view show features two featherweight bouts with top-10 implications:

• #1 Jose Aldo vs. #3 Urijah Faber. After Aldo’s destruction of Mike Thomas Brown for the WEC featherweight title, many were quick (perhaps too quick) to crown him a top 5 pound-for-pound fighter, nigh-unbeatable, maybe even a future UFC lightweight champ, the best prospect for a challenge to then-champion B.J. Penn. I myself would like to see him beat some other top fighters first, and though Faber has already lost to Brown twice, he’s the next best challenger, especially after beating #5 Raphael Assuncao at WEC 46 in January.
• #2 Mike Thomas Brown vs. #6 Manvel Gamburyan. Speaking of Brown, he’s drawn former UFC lightweight and newly minted top-10 featherweight Gamburyan, who is coming off a close decision win over former WEC title contender Leonard Garcia. Though he comes from a judo background, Gamburyan fights like a college wrestler-turned-mixed martial artist, and it’s unlikely that he’ll best Brown in the wrestling department here. Brown will likely win; he simply has more tools.

I’ll be faced with an interesting conundrum should Faber and Brown both win. Faber will be ranked over Aldo, who just beat Brown; and yet Brown beat Faber twice within 2008-2009. What to do? I suppose I’ll cross that bridge if I come to it.

Quick note: Dan Hornbuckle vs. Tyler Stinson at Bellator XV

Tomorrow evening’s Bellator show features a bout between #15 welterweight Dan Hornbuckle and Tyler Stinson.An upset here by Stinson (12-3 P3Y) would likely send Hornbuckle out of the top 15 just as quickly as he arrived. Not sure who would take the slot then–Marcus Davis? Nick Thompson? Stinson himself? Maybe we’ll find out.

Post-Strikeforce: Nashville rankings update

Some interesting movement in the rankings after last night’s debacle of a Strikeforce show.

LIGHT-HEAVYWEIGHT (205 lbs.) TOP 15

#	Name	Pro MMA Record	P3Y Record at LHW	Notes
1	Lyoto Machida	16-0	8-0	UFC light-heavyweight champion (1 defense)
2	Rashad Evans	14-1-1	4-1-1
3	Anderson Silva	25-4	2-0
4	Quinton Jackson	30-7	5-1
5	Mauricio Rua	18-4	3-2
6	Forrest Griffin	17-6	4-2
7	Chuck Liddell	21-7	1-4
8	Antonio Rogerio Nogueira	18-3	6-1
9	Luis Arthur Cane	10-2	4-2
10	Thiago Silva	14-2	6-2
11	Ryan Bader	11-0	11-0
12	Muhammed Lawal	7-0	7-0	Strikeforce light-heavyweight champion
13	Gegard Mousasi	27-3-1	2-1
14	Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou	7-5	3-4
15	Randy Couture	18-10	2-0

You might notice that I’ve only dropped Mousasi one spot despite losing to the unranked “King Mo.” That’s because he’s being buoyed by Sokoudjou, who Mouasi beat in his last fight, and who maintains a grip on the lower top-15 based on wins for nearly three years ago now.

And now, the more interesting case, lightweight:

LIGHTWEIGHT (154-160 lbs.) TOP 15

#	Name	Pro MMA Record	P3Y Record at LW	Notes
1	Frank Edgar	12-1	6-1	UFC lightweight champion
2	Gilbert Melendez	17-2	5-2	Strikeforce lightweight champion (1 defense)
3	B.J. Penn	15-6-1	5-1
4	Shinya Aoki	23-5	11-2	DREAM lightweight champion
5	Kenny Florian	13-4	8-1
6	Eddie Alvarez	19-2	7-1	Bellator lightweight champion
7	Tatsuya Kawajiri	26-5-2	7-2
8	Gray Maynard	8-0	7-0
9	Roger Huerta	21-3-1	5-2
10	Joachim Hansen	19-9-1	4-4
11	George Sotiropoulos	12-2	6-0
12	Gesias Cavalcante	14-3-1	3-2
13	Joe Stevenson	31-11	5-4
14	Spencer Fisher	22-5	4-2
15	Josh Thomson	16-3	4-1